Guns and violence: An XY collection

What is the evidence about the links between rates of gun ownership and rates of gun violence? This XY collection summarises research on the links between gun availability or ownership and gun violence. 

Guns and gun deaths

More guns means more gun deaths. This is true, at a country-by-country or international level, at a state-by-state level in comparing different levels of gun ownership or different levels of gun control within the one country such as the USA, and at a household level when comparing households with different levels of gun ownership or forms of gun storage.

• The U.S.A. has uniquely high rates of firearm homicide, far higher than other countries’ rates. As a recent review notes, this is not due to a general predisposition to violence: US rates of physical assault are low compared to other countries’ rates (Wintemute, 2015).
• The USA’s rate of firearm homicide is 24.9 times that of other high-income countries, according to a review of violent death rates in high-income countries (Grinshteyn & Hemenway, 2019). The homicide rate in the US is 7.5 times higher than the homicide rate in the other high-income countries analysed, with this largely attributable to the US’s very high rate of firearm homicides. The overall firearm death rate is 11.4 times higher in the US than in other high-income countries. Firearm homicide rates are 36 times higher in high-gun US states and 13.5 times higher in low-gun US states than the firearm homicide rate in other high-income countries combined (Grinshteyn & Hemenway, 2019).
• Americans are 5% of the world’s population, but own 31% of the world’s privately-owned guns. A 2016 book reports that US rates of gun homicide were 22 times those of Australia, 32 times those of Spain, and over 340 times those of Japan. American children and teenagers are 65 times more likely to be killed with a gun than those in the UK (Gabor, 2016, pp. 6-8).
• A comprehensive review of the data on firearm possession and violent death finds consistent evidence that gun ownership is associated with higher levels of gun-related suicide and homicide. Guns do not substitute for other means of killing, but increase overall rates (Stroebe, 2013).
• An epidemiological review of the association between firearm legislation and firearm-related injuries, based on evidence from 130 studies in 10 countries, “suggests that in certain nations the simultaneous implementation of laws targeting multiple firearms restrictions is associated with reductions in firearm deaths. Laws restricting the purchase of (e.g., background checks) and access to (e.g., safer storage) firearms are also associated with lower rates of intimate partner homicides and firearm unintentional deaths in children, respectively” (Santaella-Tenorio, Cerdá, Villaveces, & Galea, 2016).
• Comparing states within the USA, there is a statistical association between rates of gun ownership and rates of gun-related homicide. A study of all 50 states over 1981 to 2010 found “a robust correlation between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates. […] states with higher rates of gun ownership had disproportionately large numbers of deaths from firearm-related homicides.” (Siegel, Ross, & King, 2013)
• A study of violent crime for 1,997 counties in the US found that the increased prevalence of firearms is associated with higher levels of violent crime, homicide, rape, robbery, and assault (Moore & Bergner, 2016).
• A study of state-level rates of household gun ownership and annual rates of criminal acts found that higher levels of firearm ownership are associated with higher levels of firearm assault and firearm robbery (Monuteaux, Lee, Hemenway, Mannix, & Fleegler, 2015).
• There are higher rates of suicide and homicide victimisation among people with access to guns than among people without access to guns, according to a meta-analysis of 16 studies (Anglemyer, Horvath, & Rutherford, 2014).

Looser gun controls and gun deaths

Various studies focus on gun controls rather than gun ownership, and they too find that looser gun legislation is associated with higher levels of homicide, suicide, and gun-related injury, while stronger gun legislation is associated with lower levels of homicide, suicide, and gun-related injury.

• States with stronger firearm laws have lower rates of firearm suicide and firearm homicide. This is the finding of a US study of all gun deaths over 2007-2010 and state-level firearm legislation (Fleegler, Lee, Monuteaux, Hemenway, & Mannix, 2013)
• Stricter gun controls are associated with lower levels of gun-related injury and death. A national US study across 44 states, comparing gun legislation and gun-related injuries in hospitals, found that states without strict legislation have higher firearm-related injury & death rates (Jehan et al., 2018).
• State gun legislation has an impact on rates of nonfatal gun injuries. A US study across 18 states found that stricter gun legislation was associated with lower rates of nonfatal firearm injuries in hospital and emergency departments (Simonetti, Rowhani-Rahbar, Mills, Young, & Rivara, 2015).
• State gun legislation has an impact on rates of mass shootings. States with more permissive gun laws and greater gun ownership have higher rates of mass shootings. A 10% increase in state gun ownership was associated with a significant 35% higher rate of mass shootings, as this study found (Reeping et al., 2019).
• Permissive firearm laws contributed to thousands of excess firearm deaths among children living in states with permissive policies, according to a recent US analysis. Excess mortality analysis found that a group of states with the most permissive firearm laws after 2010 experienced more than 6,029 firearm deaths in children and adolescents aged 0 to 17 years between 2011 and 2023. (Also see this accessible summary.)

Guns and domestic violence and intimate partner homicide

Guns are implicated in domestic violence and intimate partner homicide. Perpetrators’ access to guns is a key risk factor for intimate partner homicide. Among individuals who use violence and abuse against their intimate partners or ex-partners, individuals with guns also use these to threaten, terrorise and coerce their victims.

• In a meta-analysis of the perpetration of intimate partner homicide by men against women, the perpetrator having access to a gun was one of the strongest risk factors for intimate partner homicide (Spencer & Stith, 2020).
• In a US study of data on civil protection orders, in nearly half (46%) of cases, the perpetrator had access to firearms, and gun access was strongly associated with higher levels of reported intimate partner violence. Perpetrators used firearms to injure, scare, and manipulate their partners in one out of four cases (24.2%) (Kafka, Moracco, Williams, & Hoffman, 2021).
• In a US study among women who had contacted a domestic violence hotline, one-third had experienced threats with guns, and one-fifth of those without gun threats worried that their (ex)partner would harm them with a gun. There was a significant association between stalking and gun threats: three-fourths of those who were threatened with a gun reported being stalked. Victims who experienced stalking were also more likely to report their (ex)partner threatened others with guns and were more likely to carry a firearm (Logan & Lynch, 2018).
• In a US study among women in domestic violence shelters in Texas, over half of victims who sought a protection order had been threatened with being shot by their abuser. Victims who experienced high levels of firearm abuse were 30% more likely than other victims to have requested a protection order (Lynch, Boots, Jackson, & Renzetti, 2022).
• In a US study among women in domestic violence shelters, having an abusive partner who owned a firearm was associated with significantly worse physical health, above and beyond the levels of intimate partner violence experienced in the relationship (Lynch & Jackson, 2021).
• In a US study among women in domestic violence shelters in California, about one third of the women were in a home with a firearm. In two thirds of these households, the intimate partner used the gun(s) agains the woman, usually threatening to shoot or kill her (71.4%) or to shoot at her (5.1%) (Sorenson & Wiebe, 2004).
• In a Canadian study among women who had experienced domestic violence and sought assistance either from domestic violence shelters or the police, the women described a series of traumatic behaviours and incidents in which firearms were central. These included experiences of the abusive partner pointing the firearm at her, holding the firearm to their head, or actually shooting the weapon at her; threats to kill or harm with a firearm; threats to commit suicide with firearms; and making threats to other family members or friends (Tutty, 2015).

Gun control and domestic violence and intimate partner homicide

Gun control makes a difference to the use of guns in domestic violence, namely intimate partner homicide:

• States with stronger gun control legislation have lower levels of homicides against female intimate partners, as this study found (Sivaraman, Ranapurwala, Moracco, & Marshall, 2019).
• Laws limiting gun ownership by domestic violence perpetrators *make a difference*. US research finds that in states with laws requiring that offenders not buy, or give up, firearms, there are lower levels of intimate partner homicides (Díez et al., 2017).
• When strong gun laws are on the books and enforced properly, they work to reduce domestic violence-related homicides. US data shows that state laws preventing abusers from having guns lead to reductions in partner homicide rates.

Gun control and deaths and injuries among children

Gun control also is associated with lower levels of gun-related injury and death among children.

• States with looser gun control laws have higher rates of gun-related injuries and hospital admissions among children, particularly those involving accidental and self-inflicted injuries, according to this US study (Tashiro, Lane, Blass, Perez, & Sola, 2016).
• Stricter gun control is associated with lower levels of gun-related deaths among children. States with stricter gun laws and laws requiring universal background checks for firearm purchase had lower firearm-related mortality rates in children, as this US study found (Goyal et al., 2019).

Guns and suicide

Higher levels of gun ownership and lower levels of gun control also are associated with suicide.

• The risk of suicide is higher in households with guns present. The increase in risk, according to a range of US studies, is 2 to 10 times higher than in households without guns (Miller & Hemenway, 2008).
• A more recent meta-analysis of 16 studies “found strong evidence for increased odds of suicide among persons with access to firearms compared with those without access” (Anglemyer et al., 2014, p. 105).
• When guns are available, ‘successful’ suicides are more likely. Thoughts of suicide are often impulsive, and can pass if the means to try suicide are not available. Limiting access to the *means* of suicide, including guns, is a successful prevention strategy, as this paper notes (Lewiecki & Miller, 2013).

Gun control and gun-related deaths (homicides and suicides)

Gun control leads to decreases in homicides and suicides.

• A study of permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws in large urban counties in the US finds that PTP laws were associated with a 14% reduction in firearm homicide (Crifasi et al., 2018).
• A study of state firearm regulations in the US over 1995-2004 found that, “firearms regulations which function to reduce overall gun availability have a significant deterrent effect on male suicide” (Andrés & Hempstead, 2011).
• A study of the effect of Connecticut’s implementation of a handgun permit-to-purchase law found that the law was associated with a 40% reduction in Connecticut’s firearm homicide rates during the first 10 years that the law was in place (Rudolph, Stuart, Vernick, & Webster, 2015).
• Australian gun reforms led to declines in *gun suicides and homicides*, and there was *no substitution effect* for suicides and homicides, as a 2006 paper found (Chapman, Alpers, Agho, & Jones, 2006). A further, more recent study of intentional firearm homicides in Australia found that the “Implementation of a ban on rapid-fire firearms was associated with reductions in mass shootings and total firearm deaths” (Chapman, Alpers, & Jones, 2016, p. 292).
• Legislation limiting firearms ownership has been shown to reduce firearms suicide rates in many countries, as an international report by the World Health Organization shows (World Health Organization, 2014, p. 34).

On the other hand, the weakening or loosening of gun control legislation leads to increases in gun-related homicides.

• Missouri’s 2007 repeal of its permit-to-purchase (PTP) handgun law led to a 23% increase in annual firearm homicides rates and a 16% increase in annual murders rates, as this study found (Webster, Crifasi, & Vernick, 2014).
• The passage of laws allowing concealed carry of guns without a permit or completion of a training course in southern Arizona led to a 27% increase in the proportion of homicides that were gun-related, as this study found (Ginwalla et al., 2014).

Guns and self-defence

A review article in the Scientific American finds that:

• An armed home is not a safer home, and in fact has higher risk of homicide and suicide.
• Gun use in self-defense in homes is rare.
• Gun use / carrying does not deter crime. More guns, more crime.

The American fantasy of the ‘good guy with a gun’, stopping criminals, is not matched by the evidence. Those who carry guns often have their own guns used against them. And a civilian with a gun is more likely to be killed than to kill an attacker.

• US research finds that if you are carrying a gun, you are over 4 times *more likely to be shot* in an assault than if you’re not carrying a gun. In short, “guns did not protect those who possessed them from being shot in an assault”, and made getting shot far more likely (Branas, Richmond, Culhane, Ten Have, & Wiebe, 2009).

Also see this recent piece by the Scientific American, The Science Is Clear: Gun Control Saves Lives (May 26 2022).

Rates of gun ownership in the U.S. vary strongly across states: as low as 5% in some, as high as 62% in others. Research finds statistical associations between gun ownership and *gun culture* - people’s attitudes and beliefs about owning guns (Kalesan, Villarreal, Keyes, & Galea, 2016).

Also see:

• This XY collection on "Guns and masculinity"
• This bibliography on guns and small arms
• This collection on men's rights, including news reports on mass shootings such as the Toronto massacre in April 2018;
• This XY collection on "Mass shootings and masculinity"
• This bibliography of academic scholarship on guns, men, and masculinities.

References

Andrés, A. R., & Hempstead, K. (2011). Gun control and suicide: The impact of state firearm regulations in the United States, 1995–2004. Health Policy, 101(1), 95-103. 

Branas, C. C., Richmond, T. S., Culhane, D. P., Ten Have, T. R., & Wiebe, D. J. (2009). Investigating the link between gun possession and gun assault. American Journal of Public Health, 99(11), 2034-2040.

Chapman, S., Alpers, P., & Jones, M. (2016). Association between gun law reforms and intentional firearm deaths in Australia, 1979-2013. JAMA, 316(3), 291-299. 

Chapman, S., Alpers, P., Agho, K., & Jones, M. (2006). Australia’s 1996 gun law reforms: faster falls in firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and a decade without mass shootings. Injury prevention, 12(6), 365-372. 

Crifasi, C. K., Merrill-Francis, M., McCourt, A., Vernick, J. S., Wintemute, G. J., & Webster, D. W. (2018). Association between Firearm Laws and Homicide in Urban Counties. Journal of Urban Health, 95(3), 383-390. doi:10.1007/s11524-018-0273-3

Díez, C., Kurland, R. P., Rothman, E. F., Bair-Merritt, M., Fleegler, E., Xuan, Z., . . . Goss, K. A. (2017). State intimate partner violence–related firearm laws and intimate partner homicide rates in the United States, 1991 to 2015. Annals of internal medicine, 167(8), 536-543. 

Fleegler, E. W., Lee, L. K., Monuteaux, M. C., Hemenway, D., & Mannix, R. (2013). Firearm legislation and firearm-related fatalities in the United States. JAMA Internal Medicine, 173(9), 732-740.

Gabor, T. (2016). Confronting gun violence in America. Springer.

Ginwalla, R., Rhee, P., Friese, R., Green, D. J., Gries, L., Joseph, B., . . . Vercruysse, G. (2014). Repeal of the concealed weapons law and its impact on gun-related injuries and deaths. Journal of trauma and acute care surgery, 76(3), 569-575. 

Goyal, M. K., Badolato, G. M., Patel, S. J., Iqbal, S. F., Parikh, K., & McCarter, R. (2019). State gun laws and pediatric firearm-related mortality. Pediatrics, 144(2), e20183283. 

Grinshteyn, E., & Hemenway, D. (2019). Violent death rates in the US compared to those of the other high-income countries, 2015. Preventive Medicine, 123, 20-26. 

Jehan, F., Pandit, V., O’Keeffe, T., Azim, A., Jain, A., Tai, S. A., . . . Gries, L. (2018). The burden of firearm violence in the United States: stricter laws result in safer states. Journal of Injury and Violence Research, 10(1), 11. 

Kafka, J. M., Moracco, K. E., Williams, D. S., & Hoffman, C. G. (2021). What is the role of firearms in nonfatal intimate partner violence? Findings from civil protective order case data. Social Science & Medicine, 283, 114212. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114212

Kalesan, B., Villarreal, M. D., Keyes, K. M., & Galea, S. (2016). Gun ownership and social gun culture. Injury prevention, 22(3), 216-220. 

Lewiecki, E. M., & Miller, S. A. (2013). Suicide, guns, and public policy. American Journal of Public Health, 103(1), 27-31. 

Logan, T., & Lynch, K. R. (2018). Dangerous liaisons: Examining the connection of stalking and gun threats among partner abuse victims. Violence and victims, 33(3), 399-416. 

Lynch, K. R., & Jackson, D. B. (2021). Firearm exposure and the health of high-risk intimate partner violence victims. Social Science & Medicine, 270, 113644. 

Lynch, K. R., Boots, D. P., Jackson, D. B., & Renzetti, C. M. (2022). Firearm-related abuse and protective order requests among intimate partner violence victims. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 37(15-16), NP12973-NP12997. 

Miller, M., & Hemenway, D. (2008). Guns and suicide in the United States. New England Journal of Medicine, 359(10), 989-991. 

Monuteaux, M. C., Lee, L. K., Hemenway, D., Mannix, R., & Fleegler, E. W. (2015). Firearm Ownership and Violent Crime in the U.S.: An Ecologic Study. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 49(2), 207-214. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2015.02.008

Moore, M. D., & Bergner, C. (2016). The relationship between firearm ownership and violent crime. Justice Policy Journal, 13(1), 1-20. 

Reeping, P. M., Cerdá, M., Kalesan, B., Wiebe, D. J., Galea, S., & Branas, C. C. (2019). State gun laws, gun ownership, and mass shootings in the US: cross sectional time series. Bmj, 364, l542. 

Rudolph, K. E., Stuart, E. A., Vernick, J. S., & Webster, D. W. (2015). Association between Connecticut’s permit-to-purchase handgun law and homicides. American Journal of Public Health, 105(8), e49-e54.

Santaella-Tenorio, J., Cerdá, M., Villaveces, A., & Galea, S. (2016). What do we know about the association between firearm legislation and firearm-related injuries? Epidemiologic reviews, 38(1), 140-157. 

Siegel, M., Ross, C. S., & King, C. (2013). The Relationship Between Gun Ownership and Firearm Homicide Rates in the United States, 1981–2010. American Journal of Public Health, 103(11), 2098-2105. doi:10.2105/ajph.2013.301409

Simonetti, J. A., Rowhani-Rahbar, A., Mills, B., Young, B., & Rivara, F. P. (2015). State firearm legislation and nonfatal firearm injuries. American Journal of Public Health, 105(8), 1703-1709. 

Sivaraman, J. J., Ranapurwala, S. I., Moracco, K. E., & Marshall, S. W. (2019). Association of state firearm legislation with female intimate partner homicide. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 56(1), 125-133. 

Sorenson, S. B., & Wiebe, D. J. (2004). Weapons in the lives of battered women. American Journal of Public Health, 94(8), 1412-1417. 

Spencer, C. M., & Stith, S. M. (2020). Risk factors for male perpetration and female victimization of intimate partner homicide: A meta-analysis. Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, 21(3), 527-540. 

Stroebe, W. (2013). Firearm possession and violent death: A critical review. Aggression and violent behavior, 18(6), 709-721. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2013.07.025

Tashiro, J., Lane, R. S., Blass, L. W., Perez, E. A., & Sola, J. E. (2016). The effect of gun control laws on hospital admissions for children in the United States. Journal of trauma and acute care surgery, 81(4), S54-S60. doi:10.1097/ta.0000000000001177

Tutty, L. M. (2015). “I Didn’t Know He Had It in Him to Kill Me”: Nonlethal Firearms Use and Partner Violence Against Canadian Women. Journal of forensic social work, 5(1-3), 130-149. 

Webster, D., Crifasi, C. K., & Vernick, J. S. (2014). Effects of the Repeal of Missouri’s Handgun Purchaser Licensing Law on Homicides. Journal of Urban Health, 91(2), 293-302. doi:10.1007/s11524-014-9865-8

Wintemute, G. J. (2015). The epidemiology of firearm violence in the twenty-first century United States. Annual review of public health, 36, 5-19. 

World Health Organization. (2014). Preventing suicide: A global imperative. Geneva: World Health Organization.